It came to me like a relevation while in the shower: Betting on the heads or tails of a coin is very much like betting on whether the market you are trading is ranging or trending.
You have strategies for ranging markets and you have strategies for trending markets. Problem is these strategies inevitably falls into either of these 2 categories: ranging or trending.
So is it possible to make a good guess whether it will be ranging or trending next? When I start seeing a sine curve in the forex market, probability is good the range will maintain and I will go in at the bottom or top of the range, especially if it looks really well-behaved. On the other hand, if I see increased activity, and a likely breakout from a cup and handle or a nice pennant, chances are good for at least a 3 pip scalp.
BTW, now seems a good time to buy some stocks. Do practice risk management.
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