You have a coin. You win every time it turns up heads. You lose when it is tails. You play 10 rounds. Maybe you get 7 heads, 3 tails. Win rate 70%. You play another 10 rounds. You get 4 heads, 6 tails. Win rate 40%. Even though the odds are 50/50, you will get such results.
Suppose you play 100 rounds, probability becomes high that your win rate will be close to 50%, not exactly but close. You play 1000 rounds, your win rate becomes very close to 50%.
Now suppose you welded the coin such that heads turns up about 55% over time. Then you have an edge in the system that over time will produce about 55% win rate.
I see the long term probabilities in my favour when I backtest my jforex program over a period of 3 years. That is why forex is so appealing, you do not need to wait years in the stock market to discover that your edge is real. 'Long term' in forex is much shorter than the stock market.
We are dealing with the uncertain future, so it is not 100%, follow the trend and mind your risk.
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