Super traders of Van Tharp Institute

I just read a newsletter from Van Tharp Institute. One particular paragraph struck me:

'Most of our Super Traders are doing short term trading in the equities market. Some of them can pull out 4-5R each week, which adds up to 200R plus each year. And one of them is doing 4R per day with just an hour of trading—but it’s not the system that does it, it’s her ability to just flow with the market.'

Hmmph, I am here just doing 15R thereabouts in 6 months. But they are 'Super Traders'. One day I will be like them. I will not be greedy. I will learn and I will be patient.

Anyway, I am looking at the forex market as well. My demo results so far are not bad. But I guess it is too early to tell. I have learnt about risk management and emotional management in the stock market. It should be useful in other markets as well. 

Bought Capitaland at 4.16

4.1 cut loss.

I am buying right at support. Reward: risk is more than 3:1.

Have a Merry Christmas!

DBS cut at 14.58

I have cut DBS at 14.58. Sometimes there is slippage. This is part and parcel of trading.

DBS doji at 14.68

I will look at Dow in the morning and make my decision to cut or not. The market is like a box chocolates: you never know what you gonna get. I trade on that premise. I do not predict. I trade probability over the long term. Any one trade should not make or break you. If it does, then you are a gambler.

As you saw in my blog, I lost more than half of the time, yet my gains far outweigh all my losses. Small losses mark the skilled trader. But when he profits, oh boy does he ride them!

Bought DBS at 14.78

Cut loss at 14.68
Target 15.26
R = 14.78 - 14.68 = 0.10
Reward = 15.26 - 14.78 = 0.48

14.68 is a breach of the 14D MA.

I will look at End-of-Day data only. Meaning for this trade, I will pretty much decide what to do (cut or take profit) only at the end of the day.

Monthly Review of Trades (MRT Nov)

23/10 DBS long $13
24/11 sold $14.84
Profit: 8.5R (Dividend NOT counted)

DBS has dividends too. My profit in this blog do not count them because I do not trade for dividends. Period. If DBS falls off the cliff, I am NOT going to hold for dividends. Period.

As of now about 6 months into the blog, I am making about 15% profits of my trading capital. It is not exact, I know, I do not really count them yet. Just an estimation will do. Trading is not exact science. It is more an art. Any ONE trade does not matter to me. What matters to me is consistency and control of risk over a period of time to emerge with greater growth. That is why I never get too euphoric or disappointed about any single trade. I simply move on to the next trade.

Staying out for now

I see lots of excuses to stay out for now. Bank stocks all breached their supports. OCBC breached and came back up making a reversal doji. But I do not think it is valid. Indices, HSI and Nikkei look like they are losing their footing on a cliff, despite their subdued recovery today.

I do not see any of DBS, OCBC, SIA, Wilmar, UOB, KepCorp having any favourable setup (3:1 reward:risk) to enter on a dip at this juncture. No breakout setups with 3:1 reward:risk either.

So I wait and monitor at the end of the day.

PS. Only Gold (SPDR Gold Shares) shows any promise. But bear in mind when you trade gold, you also need to be mindful of forex.

Sold DBS at 14.84

Gain of 8.5R. That is great! My highest gain so far in this blog! Key lesson here is to ride your profits.
Remember the golden rule of trading: Ride your profits, cut your losses short.

Riding DBS on $2+ profit per share

I almost wanted to sell at $15 today. Taken over by emotion. But I recognised it and just hung on for the ride. That emotion is fear. Fear of letting my big gain get away and going off with a smaller gain. But these are old friends. They are with me every turn of the market. Greed and fear. But greed comes from fear. Fear of not having enough, fear of missing out.

I have a system to trail the profit. I look at the DBS chart and see a support at 14.9. So I will sell if (1) it ends below 14.9 at 12 noon or 4:30pm tomorrow, (2) candlestick reversal patterns at end of day tommorow. (3) Asian indices are mostly down.

Cheers, thanks for reading.

May sell DBS tomorrow morning depending on Dow tonight

DBS has a candlestick doji which means a reversal or pause. Likely scenario if Dow falls negative tonight, it may be the start of a downward swing. If Dow shows strength, may hold DBS til further notice.

Thats all folks! Be patient. Smile and be zen.:)

Monthly Review of Trades (MRT Oct)

1 trade only, these days, it is so sideways volatile that I am only doing 1 trade per month. Come to think of it, it is a sort of protection. Back from April til now when I did an average of 3 to 4 trades til September where I just did one. So buying on dips the technical analysis way, does protect you somewhat by reducing your entries. Less dips, less entries. Cool!

Here goes:
30/9 Wilmar long 6.28
22/10 sold 6.35
Profit= 0.4R

Bought DBS at 13.00

Bought DBS at 13.00. DBS seems to be supported at this level. 12.88 will be my cut loss. 13.4 is my target. Reward to risk is more than 3:1.

Sold Wilmar at 6.35

Decided to sell as the previous day it dips below minor support of 6.35. Made a small profit. I think I will concentrate on going green more often and consistently. So this should be my 'greening' ticket for this month.

Still holding Wilmar

Okay, Wilmar gaps down to 6.11 by the time, I have no time to react that morning a few days ago. I am aware that 6.25 is a minor support, and 6 is a major support. I am prepared for this, to handle monster gap downs (but this is a small monster). Since 6 is nearby, I shifted to holding Wilmar with 6 as the support. Some of you will respect your cut loss and cut immediately. That is fine and good. For me, I feel trading should be more an art than mechanical science, hence I try to feel the trade with my whole brain (left and right, the logical and the creative). I believe whole brain functioning will build up intuition based on experience and actual decisions made.

Learn to make your own decisions based on risk management (risking 1% or 2% per trade) and just do it. Then you will grow.

Monthly Review of Trades (MRT Sep)

10/9 Long Wilmar 6.47
28/9 Close Wilmar 6.49

September P/L= -0.2R

Hmm, could have been... + 1.5R since Wilmar did went to a high of $7. Anyway, hindsight do not work, not unless you have a time travel device. So let it go and move on.

Bought Wilmar at 6.28

Wilmar had a day low of 6.11, before bouncing up to the 50MA support. I identified my cut loss price at 6.24 with price acceptance of half a day, meaning I must see Wilmar going below 6.24 and staying below 6.24 for 4 hours before I will cut. This is just a guideline. Of course I will see other markets as well before I make a decision.

Target is 6.9 thereabouts, definitely a reward:risk of more than 3:1.

Latest news about Wilmar IPO China :

Thomson Reuters

UPDATE 2-Wilmar seen delaying HK IPO amid volatile market

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/09/30/afx6947127.html

Exited Wilmar at 6.49; Nikkei falls off 10200 support

Nikkei falls off the cliff this morning, so before I went for my Guo Da Li or Chinese Engagement, I sold Wilmar off at 6.49. I bought at 6.47. To re-cap, last week, Wilmar reached a high of $7. In the past I would have felt very stupid. But I have gotten used to it. The market likes to make fools out of us once in a while.

Two things made me exit:
1) Nikkei falls off 10200 support into open space. Like falling off a cliff.
2) My rule to not let my profit turn into a loss. This profit must be >2R to be counted. So once it is > 2R, it is counted. Another rule is a trailing stop to preserve 80% of the profits once my profit is >20%. Well it has not kicked in, so I did not took profit earlier. Anyway, Wilmar dropped from $7 to $6.5 in 2 days, which is pretty fast.

Discipline is there to keep us in the game. Discipline can sometimes feel stupid, but it is necessary to long term, consistent profits. I will do a review of my approach after 20 trades. I am still learning, so feel free to share and discuss. Thank you for your readership.

The purpose of trading

Give yourself some purpose to your trading. Making money, having an extra stream of income, having an extra stream of excitement, having an extra stream of risk to manage, having too much streams of money...you can be more creative than me, come on, there has to be a purpose to your trading. Maybe it is to support an ethical company, but do get real. Investors talk about ethics in investing. Yea sure, as if the ethical company needs your money no matter how small. Love yourself first, then you can better love an ethical company. So invest/trade/gamble whatever suits you for your own wellbeing. The ethical company will not take care of you that well. Financially yes sometimes (but rare, and what if they are lying), but do they also care for your personal health, wealth and peace of mind? So there, that is why thousands of investment/trading books say 'do not say I love you to the stock' and 'do not say I want to marry that stock'.

Okay, so we got that point settled. Now I can more easily say go long and short your stocks. Is shorting unethical? (Meaning you sell first then you buy back later. Google it, that is what it is for). You want to make money out of your due diligence in analysis and research in your stocks. You believe by doing that, you can ensure that you make money from the market. No, no I do not think so. Lots of hard working people do that. 95% failed. Hard work in this sense has no basis for success in the markets. Think you are smarter than 95% of the market? IQ has also no basis for success in the markets. Why? The market and stock price movement has no rules other than what the collective consciousness in the market determines. Why? The collective consciousness ruling the markets on Earth are largely human in nature. Spock, my Vulcan friend said so. He also said in the planet Vulcan, markets are orderly and rational, and all prices are fixed because all the potential of the company has already been factored into the price. The stock price stays the same for decades. So there is hardly any excitement and profit in the markets. Prices go as predicted by the masses and hence no one is selling a good stock. 95% of Vulcan traders are just waiting for decades to buy from the 5% of Vulcan traders who went bonkers and decide to sell their good stock. And they buy good stocks and shun bad stocks. As a result bad companies are simply bad and Vulcan CEOs delist their bad company almost immediately upon listing and close down soon after. Spock simply do not understand the markets on Earth. Earthlings are simply irrational and incorrigible. Spock says he will go mad trying to trade the markets on Earth.

So ethics do not a good company's stock make. Of course there is some fundamental truth in fundamentals fundamentally telling the fundamental direction of the stock price. But these are more long term. And in the short span of 1-2 years, irrational behaviour rules, because it is just human nature. Meanwhile the fundamentals do change. Not to mention, all company reports always try their earnest best to look hansome or beautiful or simply just appearing earnest.

So I do both long and short positions. But always with the clear trend. If the chart is obviously trending up, I go long. Trending down, I go for short positions. Sideways? Then I look for a bigger picture until it is either clearly trending up or trending down. Will banning shorts reduce the uncertainty in the markets? No. The human element always comes in to introduce more complexity in one form or another and hence uncertainty. Is it unethical to profit from a short position? How about a long position? In the end is making money unethical? Not if the company is ethical? 

Therein lies the importance of knowing your purpose of trading or investing. Know thyself, know what you want from the market, be real. 'It is costly to find out who you are in the market'.

Bought Wilmar at 6.47

I was excited after lunch to see STI at 2700. I noticed Wilmar kept testing upwards towards 6.5 for the last four days, so I felt Wilmar could finally break 6.5 after lunch. Thus I bought Wilmar at 6.47. Right after that it went down and ended at 6.36 for the day. So I am not a genius, not a guru. Just an ordinary guy that preaches risk management. I feel only those who have suffered somewhat from the market's irrational temperament will truly appreciate and understand my teachings here on risk management.

'When the student is ready, the teacher will appear'. So it was often that the right teacher will appear in my life when I was ready and I have benefited from their teachings. Let me thank my teachers and benefactors right here, right now. You know who you are. Thank you! May you in turn benefit from this blog.

Staying out for now

I am staying out of this sideways market for now. Normally I would determine a channel for a sideways market and scoop up the bottom, but this time, the channel is too narrow for a reasonable reward/risk ratio. After scanning the STI, Capitaland, Wilmar, OCBC, UOB and DBS, I found no favourable conditions for entry. All of them have a reward/risk ratio that is less than 3:1. Some have noticeable dwindling volume over a period of 3 months, suggesting exhaustion of the money inflow.

So now I will be looking for a breakout, which will broaden the trading range before I consider coming in again.

August MRT (Monthly Review of Trades)

16 Jul - 4 Aug: Wilmar bought 5.4, sold 6.07. Profit/Loss: +2.1R
11 Aug - 17 Aug: UOB bought 16.28, sold 16.3. Profit/Loss: -0.4R
19 Aug - 28 Aug: Wilmar bought 6.28, sold 6.43. Profit/Loss: +0.4R

August P/L: +2.1R

R is my planned risk per trade.

Took small profit on Wilmar

I have sold my Wilmar position for $6.43. Short-term bearish outlook in asian markets. I am expecting a small downturn. So next I will probably be looking to buy on a dip. But do expect the unexpected.

I do not expect anyone to follow me on my trades, and I do not blog while I am working in my office. So it is best if you inform me of a similar position you have, so that I may notify you of my actions by other means.

It does not matter how you profit from the market. You may be tossing a coin or throwing a dart at a board. If you are profiting, I am happy for you. What is really important is you are actively managing your own risks. Take ownership and responsibility for your own risk.

I only risk 1% of my trading capital on each trade. So the outcome does not affect me much in any way. That is the way I want to trade. In control and in balance, I am proud to declare my conservative trading stance.

Once upon a time...

in a land far far away, there was a beautiful meadow. On this meadow, there is a straight road. By the sides of this straight road, there were numerous coins of gold scattered. A traveller heard of this wondrous place and ventured forth along the road, happily gathering as much coins as he can. But just when he is so happy and elated and wanted to go back home. He seemingly fell into the ground and was not seen or heard from again.

Hundreds of travellers came forth too to this wondrous land. Some have seen the first traveller fell and ventured forth cautiously. Others started to gathered the gold but was determined to stay clear of the ground through which the first traveller fell through. Some crawled along. But one by one more and more travellers were seemingly devoured by the earth along the path. They were puzzled.

Soon a band of strangers came. They had ropes, poles and other equipment. They lassoed their ropes to the other end of the road where there is a tree and soon they had a tightrope across the meadow, along the path. They even had safety ropes and tied them to their harness. They probed the ground with their poles and started balancing on the tightrope.

'What were they doing?' Some travellers asked. Others ignored them and just picked their gold. Yet others taunted them 'Are you all out of their minds? There is a road to walk on'

But as the poles probed the ground, the ground gave way, revealing a steep canyon instead. This band of strangers deftly balanced themselves on the tightrope while scooping up the gold coins. Some of them fell, but because of their safety ropes, they fell not too far from the tightrope. They rested then hauled themselves up the tightrope again and continued scooping up the gold.

The stock market is just like this meadow.

Quote from Philip A. Fisher

'Doing what everybody else is doing at the moment, and therefore what you have an almost irresistible urge to do, is often the wrong thing to do at all.' ~ Philip A. Fisher, author of 'Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits'.

Did not cut Wilmar

Well, I did not cut Wilmar. Maybe it is intuition from experience or maybe it is just the emotion of fear and hope (hope is a form a fear, eg. you hope you will get promoted, because inwardly you fear you may not have a chance. Otherwise you should know and expect to be promoted. But hope really has no place in the market, because you never know what to expect or rather you expect the unexpected).

But I did think and analyse and intuit that a rebound may be in the works. Dow's high is higher than previous session's high, STI seems to be in the process of taking out the previous session's high too. And if Dow continues, chances are high that Dow could test 9400 again in the next few days.

Yes, maybe some of you may feel I give too much leeway to my stops, not really respecting it. Well, I use my left AND right brain to trade. Mechanically using the left brain only as in pure systems trading is like using one leg to walk. You may hop vigorously for a while, then you fall.

I say risk management is paramount. Stops are tactical tools, TA and FA strategic tools. They are TOOLs. When I risk only 1% per trade, I remove a lot of emotion from my trade. And I can use my tools with clarity and whole brain function instead of just half the brain.

Thank you for reading!

Bought Wilmar

..at 6.28, my waiting bid, and ended at 6.09 at the end of the day. Oh well, let us see how it fares tomorrow. Maybe I should buy once it hit 6.34 instead, but then I chose to be aggressive and let the bid stay. I do not regret it. The risk is acceptable to me. I did not cut my loss immediately upon 6.18 because I want to see that price level being accepted.

So let us just see what happens tomorrow. If at 9:30am, the price is lower than the open, most probably I will cut. But if there are signs of a bullish reversal, I stay.

Looking at Wilmar

I am looking to buy on a dip. Hence if Wilmar goes to 6.34 and more I am considering in. My stop is 6.18. Risk is 16cts at entry 6.34. 16X3=48cts implies my target must be 6.82 thereabouts. Hmmm... very close to 6.9. If my entry is 6.38, risk is 20ct, my target needs to be 20X3=60cts more, i.e 6.98.

Entry Target

6.34 6.82

6.35 6.86

6.36 6.90

6.37 6.94

6.38 6.98

Considering my risk per trade, I think I will just bid at 6.28 now, look at the Dow in the morning and see whether I need to adjust my bid to a max of 6.34 (bullish), withdraw entirely (bearish), or just wait at 6.28 (mildly bullish)

Bye, bye UOB

Ok the STI was looking too bearish for my liking. It ended at -3.25%. Other asian markets were similarly bearish. Hence I sold my UOB at 16.3. I bought at 16.28. Hence, I lost on commission. My friend ask me why I did not take profit the day before or so when it went as high as 16.9. Well to be frank I was tempted, just like any of you would be. But for me, this scenario has occurred before. And I find that on the numerous occasions that I chose not take the small profit but let the market fluctuate against me a little bit, I managed to ride the profit much, much higher. In the longer term of 20 or more trades over at least 6 months, the difference becomes apparent. You just need 2 super trades that gives you 12 times more profit than your risk. And you will see the fallacy of taking small profits that occurs more frequently.

Remember you will have also have losses. Small profits can hardly cover your losses, even if your win rate is 70%. Remember the GOLDEN RULE always: Ride your profits, cut losses small. Win rate is seldom important in trading profitably consistently.

Re-entered with UOB

..at 16.28. Basically I saw what Dow was doing in the morning and I bid 16.28 for UOB and 6 for Wilmar. Come morning, I got in UOB at the low of the day. Talk about being so lucky twice in a row. First time was Wilmar, I bid at 5.4 remember? It was the low for that day, before it trends up to 6.07 where I exited after 2 weeks.

Now it is UOB's turn. 16.28 was the low today when it dipped and bounced off 16.28. When that happens, you just feel so lucky, especially when it ends at 16.6 for the day. But let us not count the chickens before they hatch. Right now I am looking at Dow and it is sliding.

Why did I bid at 16.28? Technicians will instantly see why I did that. Candlestick the previous day is a very nice reversal doji. It opened and closed at 16.28 that previous day. And frankly I am not willing to chase, especially since the earlier support I gave you all was at 15.7. So I just bid and waited at 16.28. 15.9 is my stop for risk of 2R. Reward/risk is about 3:1. OK, fine.

I hope I not getting too creative for my financial sake. First time risking 2R since I started this blog.

Stalking mode 'ON'

Ok now, it is stalking time according to 'The Three Skills of Top Trading' by Hank Pruden. I am looking for entry.

Based on TA and reward/risk analysis. I am stalking UOB and Wilmar at this stage.

Bullish scenario tommorrow
UOB 16.6 trigger, 16.2 stop, that is 40ct risk == 2R++, NO GO
Wilmar 6.2 trigger, 5.95 stop, resistance 6.3 NO GO

Weak scenario tommorrow
UOB 15.6 to 15.7 support, 15.55 stop, that is fine, i will bid and wait at 15.65 or so. Reward/risk is 3:1 or better
Wilmar 5.85 support, 5.75 stop, fine too. I will bid at 5.85.

So the buy at support strategy is ON. Breakout NO GO.

I usually plan for at least 2 scenarios and I can plan without quantifying all the above, because I can just look at the chart to tell me all this at a glance. But for your benefit, here they are.

Monthly Review of Trades (MRT?)

Ok it is MRT time again.

For July 09, it is simple.

Keppeland 24/6 2.13 bought
8/7 2.03 sold
profit/loss = -0.78R

Thats it!

I have broken my green streak of 3 months. I am in the red this month! Yay!

Well if you have followed my blog closely, I chose to ride Wilmar into August and sold it for a profit of 67cts. So I really have no complaints being red this month. Anyway it is a good solid color!

Wilmar took profit

I have sold Wilmar at 6.07 for a gain of 67cts. DBS holders (those that I know of), I did sms you all to sell around 13.74.

Go green or ride? / Grow..

Hmmm... I could take profit for Wilmar now and be green for the month. Or I could ride my profit with Wilmar. Again I used my intuition to make a decision. I decided to ride. I know I said I will like to be green for the month consistently, but things are different each passing day. And in order to grow you need to make actual decisions. You grow with each decision you make and each consequence you face. Do not avoid your trading losses. Face them, cut them, analyse them. Experience will enhance your intuition. It is not sixth sense in that way. It is intuition born of experience.

I have done systems trading in a purely mechanical way before. Believe me, it will not make you grow. You will not grow much in terms of experience. Financially maybe but then systems trading tend to go out of whack once too often. And you find yourself giving it all back to the market. I strongly suspect that is the case with all the system peddlers out there. Hence they need their teaching income to provide emotional security for themselves.

So do make the effort to think and make decisions for yourself. Grow with every trading decision. I never intend my blog to provide timely tips and such. I blog outside office hours because I have a full-time job. I set sms price alerts in cyberquote. And I monitor the market once these alerts are triggered. I use my mobile to buy/sell discreetly. I need my full-time job more than my trading income. I will probably only consider trading full-time when my R grows to at least 3K. R=3K implies I got 3K X 100 = $300,000 lying around somewhere as trading fodder. My ammo. And not tied to a house or for children's needs etc.

Re-entered the market with Wilmar breakout

I felt a strong emotion of missing out this morning. I knew this emotion. It is the anxious fear of missing out and what causes traders to chase a stock. In the past, this emotion and my subsequent act of chasing tends towards loss not gain as I remembered it. Hence I decided not to chase. But I still wanted in. I felt at this juncture, it could still go up despite some bearish crossovers of MAs in the Dow and STI.

So I engaged my risk management 'mode', quickly assess a few stocks and picked Wilmar for a risk of 1R and using a different technique. This is the 'resistance turn support' technique. It is also a breakout of the 5.3 level resistance. I decided to use this because Wilmar actually looks good for breakout techniques. I did not want to enter the market because of the bearish looking MAs and scooping the channel bottom does not give a good reward/risk if you take the overhead MAs as resistance. But with a breakout, ah.. it is a different story. Resistance becomes support

at 5.27 thereabouts. Break I cut.

But alas the price in the morning was 5.49 and there was a gap up. So I bid and waited at 5.4. Chasing it is out because risk control is foremost for me, despite what my familiar anxious emotion. If I miss the trade, no matter, the market is always there and anyhow enter, anyhow get slaughtered. So I just wait.

12.28pm, sms came in and my Wilmar is done at 5.4.

(Sorry guys no charts, recently got busy with work. Maybe over the weekend)

Cut loss for Kepland / Intuition?

I have cut loss for Kepland at 2.03. Well, that makes 4 losses in a row. I am in a payback cycle. Well that is fine because I only risked 0.5R for this trade.

I told some friends I do half mechanical, half intuitive trading. So where does my intuition come in? When I decide to enter Kepland at 0.5R risk. And I also told you before, I was staying out and right after that, I re-entered with Kepland. That is again intuition.

What is more mechanical is my risk management and control. I never 'lost it' yet and planned a trade with R>1. In other words, I never 'lost it' and decide to risk 2R on 1 trade. Yet. So I am proud of that consistency.

True, you saw my recent loss of 1.6R for OCBC. I planned for 1R but got 'slippage' and ended with 1.6R. Why did I not just cut at 1R, when I had the chance, and I did have the chance? Because of my intuition, I made up my mind the day before that I will allow some leeway and cut the next day if things are still unfavorable.

I use my intuition in the quiet of the day before market opens and decide there and then what I will do based on snapshots of the market. So I merely execute my plans when the market is active. I do not really make any decisions when the market is open. Those decisions are pre-planned.

But of course my intuition is far from perfect, but it is still based on 2 years of active trading experience.

How emotions affect your judgement

Now, you may be thinking your emotions do not affect your judgement you use in driving from point A to B. Same way that your emotions will not affect your judgement that the current rally has reached a pause.

Very true.

So I have been talking about emotions affecting your trading, and you may not quite understand. So if you do not really understand, you will probably still risk 10% of your capital on that trade or investment.

Rather emotions will affect whether you tailgate that dastardly road hog. Or emotions may affect you to weave past 4 lanes of highway road. And no problem, you have done it before. You can do it again .. and again .. and again til... one fine day. You get my drift?

Same with how emotions will affect your trading decision to double up on your losing positions or not to cut your loss short. Exuberance will make you stake 100% of your capital on one trade. Fear will make you hesitate on that signal and miss out on a winning trade. Still the emotion of getting back at the market will cause you to do revenge trading and entering into unnecessary trades.

When does emotions become an issue? When you are trading too big for your shoes. Same way that young drivers should not drive Ferraris (generally).

Monthly Review of Trades

SIA 15/5 - 10/6 == +6.2R

OCBC 29/5 - 15/6 == -0.5R

Capitaland 8/6 - 16/6 == -1R

OCBC 19/6 - 23/6 == -1.6R

Profit/Loss == +3.1R

Win Rate == 25%

BTW, these figures include commissions.

R is my planned amount that I am willing to lose per trade.

I made 4 trades that ended this month.

I lose 3 and win 1.

And I am green for the month! Just like the past 2 months.

So suppose I have a capital of $20000 and I want to risk 1% for each trade i.e $200. Then my R == $200. Then my profit would be $1240 and my losses $620. Net gain == $620.

If my capital base is $200,000, my R will be $2,000. I would be comfortable risking $2000 per trade. My profit == $12,400, my losses == $6,200. Net gain == $6,200.

That is how it works. But remember, you do NOT risk what you do not have, you do NOT risk whatever cash that is meant to pay your monthly bills or maintain your lifestyle. You do NOT trade so that you can afford that car you been eyeing for months. To do so, will seriously impair your judgement. Your emotions will make sure of that. You will fear you cannot pay up some bills. You will be hoping for a bigger unrealistic gain just so that you can afford that car now!

And also it is very important to build up your risk appetite(R) SLOWLY. Lets sayR=$400 ... then you get a little bored after 20 over trades over half a year, slowly test your emotional acceptance with R=$600, then $800 and so on... That is how you grow... slowly. Do not rush. Get consistent and profitable over 20 trades, then look at your increased capital base, work out your R, get comfortable losing that little bit more.

It all begins with how much you bring to the table, and how much you are willing to risk: 1% or 2% of capital should be just nice.

Quote time!

Ralph Waldo Emerson has accurately said, "One of the illusions of life is that the present hour is not the critical, decisive hour. Write it on your heart that every day is the best day of the year."

Re-entered the market with Kepland

I have bought into Kepland at 2.13 come matching time at 5:05pm on Wed. The entry looks good as STI took out the high of Tue. Similarly for Kepland. My cut loss is 2.05. My 3:1 reward/risk is justified.

I know I said I am staying out. Sorry guys. But I see a good opportunity and so I took it. Market sentiment is markedly bullish for today. Kepland produced a nice bullish bar pointing up for a reversal. I am risking a further nibble of my SIA profits, but I know I will end up green this month.

Profit preservation and cycle review

I am staying out of the market to preserve 50% of my profit from SIA til the next month. In doing this, I ensure that I am green for this month, as I was green from the previous 2 months as well. This shows consistency and I believe it is one of the first challenges to becoming profitable in trading for the long run.

I will review this market cycle as now it looks more like a sideways trending one. My strategy will still be the same: defining my channel and scooping up the bottom. And always remember the golden rule: Cut losses short and ride your profits!

OCBC cut!

I have cut OCBC at the price of 6.46. Despite 3 strings of recent losses, I pleased to say I am still positive for the month. I will make a monthly summary of trades and present them here. If you like what you see then please do follow my blog! Otherwise feel free to look at other approaches. There are infinite ways to profit from the market. Mine is definitely more on the boring end of the spectrum.

OCBC still holding

OCBC did a low of 6.56 then closes at 6.6. I mentioned before: in a bullish market cycle, I want to see price acceptance before I cut loss. If the price is below 6.6 for a half day, I take that as price acceptance and I will cut. Also I will look at the Dow Jones in the morning, the general sentiment and the level of STI. If OCBC gaps down and bounces up above 6.59, I will still be monitoring it on a half-daily basis.

Basically, I want to be convinced that it is really breaking.

Re-entered the market with OCBC

Looking at the STI 5-day chart, I see a probable rebound as the STI's high today is at yesterday's high. And if you compare today's morning session with yesterday's afternoon session, it has already taken out the high of the previous session if you were to use a half-daily chart. I am going in!

Which stock? OCBC! Similarly to STI, it took out the high of the previous session on a half-daily chart. CCI is perfect on the rebound off the floor. It is at 2 major support lines: the 50d MA and the straight trend line drawn since March.

I entered at 6.72, 6.59 is my cut loss, risk is 13cts, reward must be 39cts i.e 6.72+0.39= 7.11. I see overhead resistance at 7.4 thereabouts.

I am risking 1 unit at this point. I will risk another unit probably by using a daily chart with the high taking out the previous session's high.

Cut loss for Capitaland

I have cut loss for Capitaland this morning at 3.59. I believe that the fragile sentiment is now cracking and this could be the start of a deeper correction. I am now flat and out of the market.

What's next?

Ok, now that I have cut OCBC, I will be looking at Dow Jones in the morning. The level to watch is 8600. If it breaks strongly, I will be looking to cut loss on Capitaland as well. If not I will be watching for any rebounds that take out the previous high on a half-daily chart. The stocks I am watching will be Wilmar, DBS, UOB, SIA, and even OCBC. I do not watch many stocks, just the banks and some strong notable ones. Strong stocks give you time to cut your losses small in a downturn, while they also tend to rise up faster than others should the rally resume.

Please feel free to email me or comment regarding any stocks you are interested in. BTW DBS should be cut too.

Cut loss for OCBC

I have taken a minute loss off OCBC at end of day today at 7.08. Time to practice my discipline and cut my loss while they are still small.

Consistently take small losses, ride your gains. That is the Golden Rule.

I am still holding Capitaland.

DJI breaking 200MA

DJI seems to be breaking the yellow line which is the 200MA.Taking a closer look, volatility has started to come in when approaching the 200MA(yellow line). Look at those candlesticks, 8 days of dojis, dragonflys, hammers, stars what have you. Each warning of reversals but no reversals the next day. Just uncertainty and volatility. Consolidation seems to be it. Why volatile? It usually happens when approaching major sign-posts like the 200MA. Also the 200MA is meeting the 50MA(the red line) if their courses hold steady.

Of course nothing is 100%. No one should risk ruin following such TA. In fact no one should risk ruin based on FA, TA, magic, voodoo, hocus-pocus or even if you are a time-traveller. Simply because risking ruin affects any sane mind emotionally, mentally, physiologically. Whereupon your judgement will be impaired. (Not even having a 'Star Trek grade' time-travelling device, should anyone risk ruin because alternate universes exists! You may come back to 13th jun 2009, thinking that you have seen DJI breaking 9000 in the near future. But you may not be aware that you landed back in an alternate universe where DJI will break the 8200 level).

So what am I rambling about now? That nothing is for certain, no matter what the probability is for something happening. So risk something such that the loss does not matter much to you. Go have a life, stop worrying about the market so much!

SIA: Took profit to minimise exposure

I have taken profit of SIA yesterday because 1) it is a good day to take profit (candlestick hammer) 2) I want to minimise exposure to the market ( I am riding on OCBC and now Capitaland with profits)

Capitaland was not stopped out because I look at the closing price at the end of day, which was 3.71. Why?

1) For uptrending and bullish sentiments, I want to see acceptance of the price level of below 3.69, meaning if the closing price is 3.68, I would cut the next day.

2) However, for other market conditions like sideways or bearish, I would cut the next day, if the bar even touches 3.69.

I like to trade with my left and right brain, hence my trades are not strictly mechanical but also guided by intuition developed over my 2 years of active trading experience.

I highly recommend these 2 books for a more thorough education in trading:

• The Three Skills of Top Trading by Hank Pruden
• Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas

Trading is so much more than just Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, probabilities, trading edges and techniques.

I am watching Capitaland today.

1) It is uptrending if you pull out the chart and take a look.

2) It was dipping to support at 3.7, now it bounces to 3.77. I place a mental stop at 3.69. My risk is 8cts. My reward must be 24cts or more. I look at the 3.77+0.24=4.01. I do not see much resistance til the 4.15 level.

3) Bear in mind your exposure to the market. If you are already taking too many positions, it could get uncomfortable as the market fluctuates and will jolly well affect your emotions and your mental state and cause errors in jugdement. I try to read the market and the participants' sentiments with my right brain as well as my left. My right brain's jugdement will be impaired, meaning I cannot really have a intuitive feel for the market if my emotions come in.

Well, STI Index has a golden cross too. I notice quite a few other crosses as well. Some of you may be wondering what style of trading I advocate, let me summarise.

1. My approach is to buy near support preferably after it shows signs of rebounding. Similarly, I short near resistance preferably after it shows signs of falling. 

2. The trend is my friend, so one of the first things I do is determine the trend: long or short and I follow signals accordingly.

3. I go for a reward/risk of at least 3:1 in my favour. Otherwise, I do not take the trade.

This is only the summary of my style of trading. My approach is a wholistic one. My methodology is only a tool, such as fundamental analysis or technical analysis is a tool. Use the tool appropriately, do not use a hammer to hit a screw, or a screwdriver to hit a nail.

Teaching my methodology has no real value without also teaching the more important stuffs like risk management, emotional and mental state management. You may use a hammer to happily hammer your nails, until you meet a screw and you just cannot hammer it in. Then you get frustrated and mistakes happen. Same with trading. 

Now you may say you are investing not trading. I say it is just labels for the activity we do. I see investing as trading abeit for a longer-term duration. We can argue this for hours but the end result is the same. Trader and/or investors and/or speculators, estimated 95% lose money in the market. 

I know cash-rich people who win close to a million over 1 year, then proceed to give it all back and more in 6 months. Then rinse and repeat. It is a common story because we are only too human. The market environment however is an alien landscape. We see the market as money on the floor, but thats an illusion. When we enter the market, we are actually more on a tightrope above the grand canyon. The market makes geniuses out of us, then turn us into fools.

First blog

Hello world! This is my first blog.

... and OCBC has a golden cross a few days ago. Today DBS has it too! By golden cross, I mean 50MA crosses the 200MA. If you do not know what I mean, it is OK. We all got lots to learn in this wonderful journey.